Thursday, 5 March 2009

The Snows on Kilimanjaro

Last night thawing continued and snow rumbled off the roof. Also stock exchanges rose, oil prices increased, Germans bought new cars as never before and Gordon Brown got standing ovations for advising the US Congress on free trade.

My climate-business cycle theory that come spring good times will roll again, seems well supported by this and I think the carpet of white snow on the ground this morning should be put down to statistical error.

It has however been suggested that the theory may not adequately explain the situation south of Sahara. There is snow on the Kilimanjaro, it has been thawing for a while but poverty stricken Africans have seen little improvement and the slump is worsening their livelihoods. More research is needed but the model should perhaps also take more explicitly into account the annual avalanche of development aid. It should not be ruled out that it may have corrupted the ways of some governments. I'll come back to this.

In the meantime: How many Icelandic investment bankers does it take to screw in a light bulb? A: Just one, but it really gets screwed.

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